War with Iran

In the news there has been a lot of speculation about whether U.S. and or Israel is going to launch an attack against Iran. Iran was supposedly pursuing nuclear weapons under the cover of increasing their nuclear power reactors. I agree with the book "Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy." The authors argue that the Iraq war was wage because of a policy of Middle East transformation that would create a pro-western and pro-Israel states in the three largest anti-Israel countries: Syria, Iran and Iraq. Iraq was the first of these three countries to be attacked for a number of reasons. The next country that was going to be attacked was Iran. The rhetoric that is coming out of the Bush administration is what is left of this once grand plan of Middle East Transformation.

In 2003 war with Iran was part of the grand plan, what wasn't was the violent insurgency that was waged by the Iraqi citizens. This insurgency put an instant stop to all of the Bush administration's plans for regime change in Iran. As the war in Iraq continued without abatement, there has been no attack on Iran, but there has been an increase in the rhetoric from the administration against Iran. This rhetoric and some unilateral sanctions against Iran is all that the U.S. and will be able to do. I am saying now for all to see, the U.S. will not attack Iran.

I say this first because of the increase in the disapproval of the current war in Iraq,the loss of military equipment and the manpower stain that the U.S. army is feeling. The U.S. military can not wage war on another front. Especially with a country that has such a large well armed, trained and equipped conventional force. A force that can easily melt into the population and wage an insurgency against the invaders like the Iraqis have.

The U.S. does not have the credibility that it did after 9/11 or even on the eve of the Iraq war. The pro-war administration and the humiliating reversal of all the administration's evidence has led to a backlash in support for the U.S. and its interests. Without the support of the world body another war would only increase the hostility toward the U.S. and its policies. This can translate into a losses in trade, intelligence sharing, and policy support.

If the U.S. was to attack Iran oil would surge to new records. Any kind of fuel would see huge increases in prices, increases that neither the U.S. citizens can afford, nor the U.S. economy. The rise in global oil prices would lead to a massive recession in the global economy. Globalization has led to nation-states becoming so integrated with each other that a recession in one will lead to a change reaction that can be impossible to stop, especially if the cause is a recession in the world's largest economy. The Asian crisis is a good example of what can happen when economies become overheated and the markets try to correct themselves.

The rest of the world knows this, and are united against the U.S. and Israel and the policy of forced regime change. A policy that did not work in Iraq but seems to be held as a viable option for many of the current members in the administration.

With the release of part of the NIE to the public we all can see that the warnings coming from the Bush administration about Iran were made up and based on shaky evidence. The wording has changed a bit but still the administration wants to paint the Iranians as a dangerous nation-state that can threaten the U.S.. But really they have a right to be a little belligerent against the U.S. with 168,000 U.S soldiers next door to them and the constant saber rattling from the administration that they are next.

Let us not forget that in 2001 the previous Iranian government that was more pro-western had made requests for peace talks. The administration snub the requests and then in 2005 had to deal with the popularly elected anti-western Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who ran and won on a campaign of nationalistic rhetoric, that was fueled by the U.S.'s foreign policy that was and is seen as anti-Muslim. The U.S. is seen by many in the Middle East and Central Asia as an invader conjuring up memories of a not to distant past of colonial rule.

The nuclear power plants that are being build and technologies updated were originally given to Shah of Iran by the U.S. after the success of the CIA coupe. This was done under the Nixon administration and headed up by Donald Rumsfled and Dick Cheney. It is amazing how many of the supposed threats to this this country were started by these two men (Chemical weapons is Iraq were given to Saddam by these two men, and they brought Iraqi scientists to the U.S. and gave them training in the development of these weapons).

The threat from Iran is as made up as the threat from Iraq was. This time though the current administration does not have the ability to start any war with this sovereign nation. Instead of constant bickering with the Iranians we should be reaching out to them so that we can work together to stabilize Iraq and the region. A cessation of saber rattling will lead to a drop in oil prices that are being pushed up in the future's market because of the fears in a conflict with Iran. Because of the Ne0Con ideology that this administration has this will not happen because of their belief that one doe not talk to an enemy. Let us all hope that the time of the NeoCons has come to an end with this administration.